Sunday, 19 November 2017

Nehru, The City Designer

(1955) A simple suggestion by Nehru to Nikita Khrushchev -about making public parks entry free- created a silent social revolution within communist government. Making public parks entry free created diversified pool of dating couples, monotonous dating pattern went away and more young couples were able to enjoy romantic time in over crowded cities like Moscow. It also increased happiness among children and elderly, as they were not charged any more. It also increase number of picnic spots and affordability of picnic itself.

Fiscally it did create burden on city's budget but it revolutionized "City Design" concept in Soviet Union as we know now. It also revolutionized "Public Good" concept for city design. Urban designers now include this(affordability of park and public spaces) in "Livability index" and in "Walkability Index". Who knew that even Nehru could influence "City Design" policies of USSR!!!!.
#NehruTheCityDesigner
#Nehruvian
#MoscowFiles
#Parks

Wednesday, 15 November 2017

Should We Need To Hate Nehru


History of modern India wouldn't be complete without Nehru. Why should we forget Nehru. Should we forget because he introduced Hindu Marriage and Succession act, which transformed Hindu society as we know it today. Even though conservative forces which are in power today opposed it vehemently. Or Should we forget him because he followed socialist model of economic development in line with "Bombay plan". Or should we forget because he didn't allow India to slip into revolutionary communism when our neighbours either slipped into dictatorship or communism. Or should we forget him because he stood against imperialism/ west and asked for complete independence not only of India but also of African and Asian countries.

Should we forget him because he gave idea of self development and non-alignment when every country wanted to align post WW2. Should we forget him because he vehemently opposed Gandhian softness towards British in matter of Dominian status to India.

Should we forget him because he declared Purna Swaraj. Or should we hate him because he along with Patel didn't accept balkanisation plan of India. Or Should we hate him for not listening to Patel on Kashmir matter and listening to Mountbatten instead ,which brought all current mess.

Or Should we forget him because he supported Ambedkar who designed modern marvel in law , "The Indian Constitution" , when every constitution born in the world during that period, has crumbled.

Or should we hate him because he listened to field Marshal Karriyappa about capability of Indian army to intervene in the neighbours conflict. Or should we hate him for being optimistic and idealistic towards young communist China which behaved like North Korea.

Or should we hate him because he didn't become authoritarian even though most world leader he meet were. Or Should we forget him because he created states based on language or should we hate him because he taught how to be secular even though it was not part of constitution. Or should we hate him because he was not militarily aggressive towards our smaller neighbours.

Thursday, 4 May 2017

Drought Analytics of Karnataka Using MODIS Satellite Level 2 Data(2001-2015) using ArcPy python package and Tableau Public


 Humans have been changing the face of the earth since they emerged out out of Africa. Most of the recent changes has been happening since 1750s. Be it industrial revolution, be it green revolution or white revolution ; all has happened in this short period of time. However post 1950s the change has accelerated in such as way that its being called as Anthropocene : The Age of Humans.

The Age of Humans also brought with the complication of guiding the whole mankind through the problem that came along with Anthropocene. Drought is one of the biggest challenge the mankind has, is and will be facing. There are lot of index to define different type of droughts; this would be a topic for some other day. In the present article i am going to come out with simple index on drought and how to extract this index using MODIS Satellite Level 2 data for entire India using ArcGIS tools and visualize data using Tableau Public.

In previous article i had explained point extraction of data on MODIS level 3 data. Here we would be concentrating on MODIS Level 2 data. Thanks to our work at NIIT University's GIS Lab, we are able to extract and process MODIS Level 2 data for entire India. I am also happy to announce that NIIT University GIS Lab has now capabilities to work on Level 2 data of 4 MODIS products, in large scale running in 100s of GBs. Existing index of Drought is a simple ratio of NDVI and LST(In Kelvin). It does have its own flaws but its simplest and easiest way to conduct preliminary analysis on huge Spatio-temporal data. As this project has other stack holder I would abstain from disclosing the full methodology. I would rather discuss this in brief.

Method:

As previously said we have capability to extract all years data of MODIS Level 2 satellite data for whole India(South Asia) or any part of the world. Resolution of this product varies from 250meters to 500 meters and 1km. NDVI product that has been derived for whole India, has resolution of 500 meters. LST which is in Kelvin has 1 km resolution. This data is 8 days(LST) and NDVI (16 days) composite data. We have codes to convert 8 days LST to 16 days LST and NDVI 500m data to 1 Km resolution. Hence end product will be 1km resolution and 16 days composite data. Drought Index will be calculated pixel wise. Has its index, we intend to know how many number of pixel are present in the defined range of the Index. Drought Index has both Minimum and Maximum, all other data will vary between these. Minimum would be -9 and maximum would be 36. This index is just number but this is power full number that could give a lot of insight in the drought.

If index is less which means NDVI is less and LST is high, and if index is more means NDVI is high and LST is less. Every other things would vary between these interpretation. We have created numerical class for putting all values of pixels index less that 0 in one class and then defining 7 class with the gap of 5. In all 8 classes Class 0 to Class 7. This is still not standard, more research with more parameters could be added to come out with brand new index. Here we are interested in having capability to extract data and analysis district wise using raster data, rather than on Index itself. We have also developed scripts that can take shape file(GIS) of whole state or nation or region containing 1 level of subdivision and extract the raster data based on the subdivision. This extracted data would be in the form of CSV file. The data extracted is just simple conversion of attribute table of each raster file that has been clipped based of shape file given. This is done using ArcPy a python package provided by ESRI. CSV file is fed into Tableau software of both GIS and non-GIS visualization. I am glad to tell readers that this integration of Arcpy and Tableau software for analyzing Raster data(MODIS) is uniquely developed by us in NIIT GIS lab. This method uses processing power of ArcPy at ArcGIS server and visualization power of Tableau.

 Link 1
Dry Areas(here u can interact with data by changing years and months)

Link 1: Please Click above Link to see interactive graphs
Our data processing is done for whole India. Just extraction of data from drought raster file took more than 24 hr of processing for entire India. I can tell that i have district wise data for all district of India in this Drought Index. In coming day LST for all districts would be generated. Here in Tableau public I have presented data for my state ie Karnataka state in Republic Of India. Same can be done for any part of the world. Tableau public provides unique opportunity to share data publicly. Given above figure (links) are off Tableau public . These are interactive graphs users can change the selection given in the Tableau. Tableau public is free. Tableau also comes with GIS feature which i have tried to showcase. Lot of interpretation can be drawn out of these graphs. Figure 1(Link 1) will give the spatio-temporal variation of 15 years of Drought Index for all district of Karnataka, for all months and all years. User could filter the visualization. Figure 2(link2) gives plotting. Figure 3 (Link3 ) gives GIS visulaiztaion of Dry spell for entire data. Dry spell data is for post-Rabi season. Northern part of Karnataka state is prominently effected by drought like situations. Reader, I would encourage you to use filters to see how this Index changes year wise and month wise.

Link 2: DroughtAnalytics of Karnataka Using MODIS Satellite Data 2001-2015

There could be lot of discussion on just visualization but typing constrain. But i promise reader that I would come back with more such interesting ESDA(Earth Science Data Analytics) works. Next time it would be LST for districts of karnataka or could be at sub-division level or could be at panchayat level. I have scripts which could work till Panchayat level, even i would be eager to work on this but only processing capability is blocking the move at Panchayat level. Anyway till next time happy learning , Happy ESDA.

Link 3 Here reader can select the graph based upon District and Month. Interpretation of the graph will give rain fall pattern of each districts of Karnataka
Readers please do contact me if you which to derive data for your own area. I would more than happy to help you. mail me at shivaprakash.ssy@gmail.com or contact me via LinkedIn. I would also entourage readers to download Tableau Workbook of these analytics and you can work on my data. We would also provide assistance for those who want to extract data for their region.

Sunday, 2 April 2017

Extraction and Visualization of MODIS level 3 AOD data using ArcGIS and Tableau


It has been a month since I wrote "Making Sense of My Climatic Data". In order to spread the word that "Any one can become Data science guy", I need to keep writing about the work that i have done or doing as part of my projects. The present post is about a project that we(Arun Kale, Manoj Divakaran and Me ) took under the guidance of Dr Parul Srivastav at NIIT University. This project was about investigation of CO(Carbon Monoxide), NO2(Nitrogen Dioxide) concentration over industrial cities near NIIT University using Remotely sensed data of MODIS sensor on board Terra satellite. We also looked into AOD over these industrial cities. Here we have used level 3 data which could be downloaded from on of the NASA's website (https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/).
Main objective of this project was to extract data from CO, NO2 and AOD over Neemrana City(RICCO industrial Area), Bawal and Behror. I followed Earth Science Data Analytics methodology but with my own taste to it. I included ArcGIS and Tableau software for the project. ArcGIS Desktop was used to extract the data from the TIFF files and convert the extraction into CSV file which was then fed to Tableau software for Visualization in the form of temporal graph.
Figure show the methodology that was followed. Its a simple methodology. Following are the steps
  1. Data in TIFF formate has to be downloaded. Here we have taken monthly data for 15 years form 2001 to 2015.
  2. A point shape file representing cities was prepared.Using ArcMap tool (Extract Multivalues To Point), we used point shape file to extract the values present at that X,Y in TIFF files.
  3. This gave us 3 shape files. 1 for CO, 1 for NO2 and another for AOD. Attribute table of these shape files contained data, this table should be extracted to table using Table to Table or Table to excel conversation tool in ArcMap. The output of this conversion in either CSV file or Excel file.
  4. This csv or excel file is input to the Tableau which is used for visualization of the data. However there is little modification to done to the csv or Excel files. In order to get temporal visualization curve, time period must be in a single column. However the output of the extraction doesnt give that format. so the whole extracted data as to be transposed using Transpose function in the Excel.
  5. And extraction of data would create a column of extracted values for all points with column name same as the file name so name convention of the file must be such that it must define month and year of the file, so that this information could be used for temporal visualization using Tableau.
2 Things that need to kept in mind is file naming convention and transposing of the data. Once the data is ready; Tableau will takecare of the rest. Above method involved extraction by ArcGIS, there is no data preparation involved but downloading TIFF data and renaming using python script could be considered as Data preparation. Data cleaning is not necessary as level 3 data doesnt have irregular data. if 0 or NoData exist in data , please verify before using it into tableau. For AOD, the no-data would be extracted as 0 as No-Data's gray-scale would be 0. Hence, if 0 value exist in the data , it should be converted into No-Data. This could be done both at Image level , which would be before extraction and at excel level after extraction.
Earth Science data analytics(ESDA) doesnt mention at what stage there should be data cleaning, or extraction. This could be adapted based on project. once data preparation, data extraction and data cleaning is done, its time to Visualization and analysis of the extracted data.
This graph is temporal visualization of AOD over RICCO area near Neemrana City. There are lot of spikes which are high value of AOD, which is naturally in the month of November, June and July.
June and July are due to intense sand storm which increase the AOD of the area and November and December is due to temperature inversion in the area compounded by burning of straws in the fields. There is change in recent trend, as high values of AOD have started getting consistently in the month of November and December only after 2009 , from when industries are being operationalized in the area . This need to be investigated further. This could be highlighted using Tree map of some of the highest AOD and their months. These graphs are obtained for Behror and Bawal also.
Carbon Monoxide(CO) is also important measure for industrial area. Below are the graph of 3 cities.
There is clear declining trend in both RICCO Neemrana and as well as Bawal. Even Behror also shows the similar trend. Why there is decreasing trends needs to be further investigated. Another interesting thing came out of these data was CO would be highest in the summer months ie in the Month of April, May and June. which varies between 120 ppbv to 160 ppbv.
While evaluating NO2 concentration which is directly linked with industrialization ie as industries increase there will be increase of NO2 gas. This, we got clearly from the temporal graph of NO2 over these cities. Even though data was available only from 2005.

Even in this(2005 to 2015) data there is clear trend which shows that till 2009-2010 the curve remained steady only to increase from 2010. This is consistent even in other cities.
From Tree map that been generated for Neemrana RICCO has most of the highest values of NO2 from the year of 2011 to 2015. Only a few of highest values are from year before 2010.From the above data visualization we can draw some conclusions.
  • Highest AOD values of 3 cities (RICCO Neemrana, Behror, and Bawal) before 2010 have been in month of June and July. This is in consistence with the environment as Rajasthan experiences sand storms and strong winds carry dust in these time. But this trend changes from 2010. The highest recorded AOD from 2010 has been in months of November. This is consistence in 2010,2012,2013,2015. This is due to smog that gets created during the winter, which starts from November. Burning of the crops in Punjab and Haryana during November creates particulate matter that are main reason for the smog in this area along with addition of air born particles from the Industries. This gives clear indication that from 2010 there has been huge increase in pollution levels relative to the previous years.
  • Nitrogen Dioxide in RICCO Neemrana, Behror and Bawal area is on rise from 2005. However the slope till 2009 is very small however after 2009 there is rapid rise in Nitrogen Dioxide levels, which is clear indication of addition of Nitrogen Dioxide from industrial sources. Nitrogen Dioxide values also increase during winter months due to temperature inversion.
  • Carbon Monoxide in RICCO Neemrana, Behror, and Bawal area shows constant decrease trend from 2001. Highest values in most year has been in month of May. This decreasing trend and peaks in May needs to studied further.
These type of data extraction and visualization could be done using this simple methodology. This study could be extended to all the cities in order to know trends of AOD, NO2 and CO. I need to thank Manoj Diwakaran and Arun Kale for generating these graphs and data. And if reader has doubt please mail me at shivaprakash.ssy@gmail.com, I would be more than happy to help you people. Happy learning and happy ESDA.

Friday, 3 March 2017

Making Sense of Climate Data using ArcGIS and Tableau software


 * This post is the replication of the Making Sense of My Data (Climate Data) which i wrote in LinkedIn

As I promised in my previous article, I am back with more to say about Geo-Data science. This time its about visualization of the data that we have extracted. Being independent researcher(Climate Change) and guy who loves data, i would love to show how beautiful(rather worrying for climate scientist) visualization of data could be using Tableau software. As i told in previous post that we have extracted 15 years of LST,NDVI and Snow extent data. Although input was EOS-HDF files of MODIS satellite, we got CSV file as final output. If you need to know how we got CSV, please refer https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/geo-data-science-shivaprakash-yaragal.

Data that we extracted as elevation, class and time as bins. So there could lot of trend analysis using such data. Data can be aggregated, grouped , regrouped based on elevation. Its basically multidimensional data. Tableau software is one of the most powerful that market can provide for us. For students , Tableau provide 1 year free subscription of this software. Thanks to my dear friend Savan Kumar for introducing me to Tableau a year back. Tutorial for Tableau is also free. If you are not student you can still get Tableau public. Given below is the tutorial for Tableau public(https://public.tableau.com/en-us/s/resources).

Having talked about Tableau , lets move on to what we came out with. As this project involves other researchers also , i should restrict myself for not putting all the data. For purpose of this article there are enough visualization to put through . From our data we have done trend analysis , which are quite interesting for Climate Change researcher and as well as data science guy. Below is one such graph. I have reduced granularity in these so that people could get broad picture of whats happening. In the below picture its month wise(Ex: all January month of 15 years) trend at elevation of 4000m to 4500m. This is just for 4 months. We have done it for elevation between 2000m to 6000m having bins of 500m . This data is for 15 years. Month data is from grouped average data. Its quite interesting to see that at 4000m to 4500m there is decreasing in the temperature during Winter and starting of summer. There is much more to infer if NDVI , SNOW extent at same elevation is analyzed(which we have done). I leave inference to readers.
Below picture is beautiful visualization of how snow and no-snow pixels will vary month wise. Each line represents single year. So we have 15 line showing how snow and no-snow pixels vary with Georgian calender. Snow graph clearly shows in which month we have high snow pixel(starting from December and decreasing in March). It also show low number of pixel in summer months. If granularity is increased there is lot much infer upon. We will not go into it. These could be more beautified like bride if you know how to makeup ;-) ;-)

I love multidimensional data, visualization of these is big task for analytics industry. I need to appreciate what Tableau can do with this kind of data. Below image is one of the most lovely visualization( of-course this graph is from me only). she is mine from core ;-) :-) she was my first love , my first love of climate data ;-) ;-) It because of this beautiful graph , i started loving visualization. Lot things can be inferred from it. Its a scatter plot of no of snow pixel vs no-snow pixel categorized by months given by color and size. Size is reversed in order to high the negative aspect, which may be low numerical value, low average etc. Basically its reverse symbolism. Giving big symbol to numerically smaller entity to highlight that entity. From this graph it's inferred that its only in month of June,July, and august there are large number of pixels that dont follow the usual trend.
The graph which is at the top ie at the starting of the article is derived from snow data. It shows variation of 15 years data. All our effort is in just that graph , its as simple. I love that even tough not much can be inferred. As people say "Devil is in details" , all the other graphs are derived from detailed and granular data rather than aggregated data.

I will explain another 2 graph (tree map) which are quite good.These are tree map. These give distribution of data from left to right along with varying size of cells. The red color tree map is about 10 top hottest months of the study area. Blue color tree map shows 10 coldest months. Its feels awesome to come out with such tree map with just click of button using Tableau.

From these Tree maps its clear that June 2009, was hottest(of-course 291.059 Kelvin is total average of large geographical area spread over large area). And February 2008 was the coldest with 267.010. Please note that i havent given you the elevation of the data ;-) ;-) . I leave it to the imagination of the readers. There are numerous such visualization that we are able to do. I am not great climate guy or data mining guy, but what i know is : "what,how and where" to extract data and how to visualize data. My concept is simple "Any one can be come Data science guy". 

I have been doing or done other data visualization as well, I will put that(PM2.5 visualization of Industrial city) in coming days, till then happy visualization. And please ignore any mistakes ;-) ;-) . If any suggestion or talk on the these or any other thing please do contact me on LinkedIn or mail me @ shivaprakash.ssy@gmail.com .

Friday, 7 October 2016

Geo Data Science

I have always wondered why and how people establish new nomenclature in industry. Geo-spatial industry is not new, neither is data science. I was one of the few lucky guys who tested both at the same time way back in 2011-12, while i was still trainee with Tata Consultancy Services. Although i was trained as Java developer, but was given opportunity to work on data mapping using Informatica. Before i could know its part of BI, i had one of myu feet in GIS in maintaining spatial repository for GIS application . It was a accidental entry as non in the existing team were interested in working on GIS.

Between 2012-15 it was altogether different experience. It was all about understanding sociology, political science, anthropology, history, environment etc. This has given me strong belief that complexity exist in problem solving, reductionist attitude doesn't provides solution but clarity of the complexity could. Clarity of complexity is just have high resolution data of large area. I always dreamt of working in a domain that integrates all that i have learnt. It has been 1 year in my master in GIS, we have been working on 2 projects on Climate change
  • Detecting Greening effect in Uttarakhand area of India.
  • AOD study of cities of India
Both of these projects are first of its kind in terms of scale both spatially and temporally. We use both level 2 and level 3 data of MODIS Terra Satellite. Task in both were similar conceptually
  • compile 15 years of temporal data with 500m spatial resolution and 16 days temporal resolution
  • 3 parameters were used in Uttarakhand project and 3 other parameters in AOD project
For both project we applied different methodology but we used same approach of data science which included following steps
  1. Data preparation
  2. Data extraction
  3. Data visualizations
  4. Data interpretation
For Data preparation and Data extraction we used Ubuntu server and bash programming. Huge amount of data was downloaded from LPDAAC. In GIS or in Geo-spatial domain Data preparation also involves
  • creating vector data which include point and polygon on the study area. This included creating point cloud of 150 cities.
  • data preparation also included downloading or ftping huge amount of data from the servers
Data Extraction

We used ArcGIS 10.4.1 software to extract data . As we had large number of files to process we used python scripting. In Uttarkhand project we developed series of code which performed not only better then MRT tool- given by LPDAAC(USGS, NASA)- but also was running on the local machine. All was possible by using ArcPy packages in ArcGIS packages for data processing. This processed data which was in the image format was using ArcGIS itself which is Geo-visualization software as well. But we were able to create lot classified images which were extracted to .csv file. And these images were in order of thousands. Working on thousands of image was huge challenges.

.csv that were generated out of the classified images were fed into Tableau 9.1(Now Tableau 10) for visualization. I am happy to announce that we finally found Greening effect in Himalayas of Uttarakhand. We had another huge task of creating bins fro 3 parameters ---> NDVI, Temperature and Snow Extent & Days. These bins were made on bases of elevation. Bin width was 500meters. It was computationally heavy as each image of single parameter needed to be classified in 10 bins. This data was as previous said was converted into .csv file. All was done using python code in ArcGIS.
I am also happy to tell viewers that there is increase in NDVI pixels at elevation above 5000meters in Himalayan mountains of Uttarakhand. This is clearly visible from temporal graphs that were out come of the Tableau Visualization. This gives us confidence to put another aspect of Data Science ie
Data Visualization 

As i explained we have used
Data Preparation--->Data Extraction---->Data Visualization
Interpretation is our result of Green effect, the question of weather and how these parameters can be interrelated and to which extent.

Same logic was followed while carrying out Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD) for more than 150 cities of India. It included

Data Preparation
  • using ArcGIS software
  • FME desktop
  • Ubuntu Server
Data Extraction
  • Python script(ArcPy)
Data Visualization
  • Tableau
  • ArcMap
Data Interpretation: We were able to prove following
  • there exist co-relation between temperature and AOD. This correlation is geographical correlation.
  • AOD of most Indian cities except some South Indian cities is greater than 0.3 for most of the month of the Year
  • Brown cloud (AOD) exist all along the Indo-Gangetic plain staring from Punjab and ending up in West Bengal. Hence most cities that comes under this region dont have clear air to breath.
We are conducting similar projects which i will update in coming months. From above projects its clear that Data Science methods are and has been part of Geo-Data or Geo-spatial data. Geo Data Science is inherent part of GIS or Geo-spatial world.




Monday, 18 January 2016

GI

Geographical Intelligence 


Concept of AI (Artificial Intelligence)seems to be old one. Turing Test was hypothesised way back in 1960s. GI is similar concept to it. AIs and GIs were to be reality . people seems to know how, but few knew when. Human conscious is function of time. Machine consciousness is function of both computing, search and time. We have reached a critical juncture where first 2 are met, but its about time now. We have AIs now which can pass Turing test in one component like speech etc. We till now haven't been able to disprove Moore law , but I hope world is close to at least challenge it. World is waiting for next big thing. There are things out there, but its gradual reorganization of these related elements that can create AI . AI could just be abstraction of human consciousness, but what about abstraction of nature. Will we be able to create abstraction of this?. We really don't know this. What form it may take?!!!, no one knows. What it should be called?!!!;, A God, or Natural Intelligence, GI ie geographical intelligence etc . its very intuitive way of answering the question of "What's Next after AI". If u ask me I would prefer a cup of coffee with GI if at all its in human form .smile emoticon smile emoticon smile emoticon

 smile emoticon 

Wednesday, 13 May 2015

Democracy : A Jumla


Idea of Nation State is active result of social contract. Institution are the base of this idea. Nation States are built for society, not for person, community, religion or family or particular group. If some one or some organisation think that they were, are and will be the savior of the nation State than its mockery of Nation State , which is sovereign. Nation State is and should be always be pursued to be under constant danger both from within and outside. Institutions of Nation State are threat to the very idea of Nation State if they are unchecked. Hence fathers of modern democracy(US) introduced checks(Jeffersonian Democracy). Nation State is built for society as whole , but with time power tends to concentrate in hands of very few; be it in hands of politician, executive, be it in judiciary or oligarchs. The greatest threat to Democracy are Demagogues and Un/under checked  executive. Most of dictatorial tendency , as world history has noted , is from Executive. Hence its necessary to protect society from the Executive who have sweeping power be its President, be its PM , CM or secretaries of any country. 

Dualistic Democracy emerged to this new challenge. Its also true that for South Asia, Democracy has always been idealistic "Jumla"(Hindi word for Simile). Its true that Nation Builders never built Nation State to concentrate power. Distributing and diffusing power were meridian ideas of Democratic Nation State. But with time ideologies have got degenerated and Nation States now revolves not around citizens but around power. This is due to the acts of those who rule in the name of people. Athenian Democracy was the only Democracy which was near to what Democracy is all about; all others seems to be "Jumla". South Asian democracies tend to have become "Jumla". Demagogue, messiah, family, group etc are player in this "Jumla". Dualistic Democracy  is one step to check this "Jumla". Having said that, we cant fully rely on this action as , this effort is also by the people who decide "In the name of people". Most of us have become part of "Boiling frog Syndrome". First Gods ruled us, we never asked; then Kings came who ruled as sons of god; then nobles and aristocrats ruled us in our name; now neo-aristocrats (be it particular family or particular group or mother group or hand few of people at executive level) rule us, all in the name of people. These people build cult at the expense of State, institution and citizen. This has always been tactic of demagogues and power centrist executive be its PM,CM or others, of any nations.

Yesterdays (13 th May 2015) judgement of Supreme court(Indian) that tax payer money must not be used for govt advertisement which has photos other than President, PM and CJI, is a-well coming decision. we seems to be moving towards actual democracy; Democracy by and for Citizens. Ask yourself, when Nation State has asked consent of yours, to change the frame work. Ask your self are we following "Rule of Law" or "Rule by Law". From Boiling frog syndrome it can be asserted that we are in "Rule by Law" and "Law" in India or most countries is created by handful of Parliamentarians and by Bureaucracy ; who both are not foolproof. System will never be perfect; most of time its "JUMLA" , Democracy by Judiciary(Dualistic Democracy) is small corrective mechanism to make this "Jumla" to walk the talk. It important that we need to move towards "Rule of Law" . Judiciary need to be strengthen , because historically no one has stopped executive to degenerate into dictatorial messiah. We as citizens are far more supreme than "Rulers in others Name", because it "We The People" who have adopted constitution Not the "Who Rule in the Name of Others".


By
Shivaprakash

Health4All

Public Health Policy


“The government is responsible for the people's health but the people themselves are the government"
 Dr Bamgboye Afolabi. 

How can I disagree with Dr on above statement. Its true that we have far more generalist in the health care system , be its secretary level or minister etc. Public health system is a complex system. Programs must be meticulously designed. In developing country like India we start to fail from planning itself. And loop hole are so numerous in number, some time i feel programs are designed in order to siphon off money. Very small amount reaches to the needy once. In India the biggest problem is poverty, next to it is corruption. So its not shocking that India has poor population equal to population of USA. 

When designing public health system, question comes is of financing. who has to pay the bills. Who it should be financed ; is it through public or private or both. This is question which has been debated from the start. But its also true that every thing is not free, some one has to pay some where. However ,it happens some times that ,Not all people has to pay, but certain amount of population have to pay and remaining will get benefit from it. Its unrealistic to have 100% universal health program without paying. And arguing that poor people cant pay and those will be left out ,is passive thinking. Differentiated paying could work. Govt must pay for poor and must allow other to pay for them-self , off course it should be minimal. We have seen far more cases of "Tragedy of common". Health care system must not be made one. Same boot doesnt fit all. Certain disease which have spillover effect ,hence needs a system where every one can be made to pay same or some times nil. But in some circumstances differential paying could be brought in . People must be given option in health care services; some will opt private; some who cant pay, will and must be serviced by Govt. Its about right to differencial choice. Person with ability must not be stopped from paying more if he wish to pay. Mosquito may not make difference while biting because its mosquito but our treatment is in human world not in mosquito's world. Here differentiation exist and if i wish to apply for it, i must be allowed.

Motivation, Spending and Health 

Not spending on health sector is bad idea. I dont agree with core idea of "not increase cost". Our spending on public health is at abysmal level(1.2% of GDP). As health and education are state subject, its state responsibility to increase spending. If motivation was the only factor then soviet union would have collapsed. We have far ignored the incentive part. Incentivisation of health sector is good, salaries has to go up. Bureaucratic red tape must be at higher level of administration not at lower level.

It must also be noted that front-line worker join system not by motivation but for living , hence it has to be kept that way. Their lives must be made worth while by providing incentives, be its their children education or salary or health insurance. Its might be shocking to put forward that in most state govt, govt dont even provide health insurance to Health Department worker. Its laughable, however some state have recently started providing insurance. We also have departmental co ordination problem. Departmental work of one fall in the other; example Women and Child welfare dept has same mandate as Health department in some programs. As i have seen , the former dept more like dead, and coordination in pathetic . Most programs are not implemented. All are cooked books except in TB program and polio program. Most PHC are under employed with ANMs and ASHA workers. There is systemic problem, and Not spending more is part of that problem. For sustainable health system we need both ideological motivation as well as incentive based motivation along with systemic reforms. We have had Civil service reforms but why cant we have Public Health System Reforms.

Friday, 20 March 2015

Obsession with GDP???

Obsession with GDP???


It is the fact that world including developing world is follow GDP as measure . I dont call its an obsession. GDP itself is new concept. National GDP is altogether post 1945 phenomenon. Its good that we had a measure. But developing measure for a Nation State was a thought process. It seem now, its non representative which is true now but not then. Coming up with index that is satisfiable is a huge thing. world walked till GDP now, it will move forward which could include all value related thing (even though these are hard to quantify). We have HDI, GII, Happiness Index, Gini coefficient, Failed state ranking, Press freedom Index and other smaller bigger and smaller index. These are getting incorporated in literature . Its not that developing country dont want to follow other index. Nepal have happiness index , way back from 1970s.


Index needs credibility, UN index are never debatable but Failed state index is. And Most of Developing Nation state see other Index as conspiracy of External power, so as a Nation State its very hard to come to terms on these other Index. Its known fact that Gender inequality, other inequality, HDI, violence, human right violation is rampant in countries of south Asia, Africa and other developing countries. Nation state take these index as challenge to there own claim. Take the exam of Human Right Violation during Eelam war(2009) in Srilanka or Maoist war in India, both Nation State dont except report on these. Its hard as of now to move away from GDP, which is a reality not the choice. But all these are nation specific Index centred at Nation State. We need to move beyond Nation State Indexes. How is question for Globalist to think.


And obsession of GDP hasnt hindered healthcare as for  as India is considered; It has actually acted like positive feedback mechanism. Spending of Indian State wrt GDP is less compared to developed and some developing countries. It has given civil society a measure to ask for more spending which is the need of time. Yes it could have been done better but its not worst. Time to time intelligentsia discusses HDI,GII, Gini, etc which puts politics and govt on toes to do something good to be in electoral politics. Food Security Act (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Food_Security_Act,_2013) , Education for all, Health for all(coming in few years) are output of those political and electoral debate.

Regards
Shivaprakash

Monday, 9 February 2015

We ,The Children of Aristotle


We ,The Children of Aristotle

Let us study Aristotle : The Despot, The perfect Elitist; Philosophical son of Plato: The Tyrant”, This was how i got introduced to the greatest philosopher of ancient Greek world. Initially it intrigued me; a mere thought about such an introduction was kind of blasphemy for me. This was an year back, after turning some pages of ancient history of both know and not so known world , answer seems to be settling for me now; Yes there is certain truth why my philosopher called Aristotle The Perfect Elitist and Plato , a Tyrant. May be it depends upon how you read him; not one , not twice but any time you read. At time, he appears to be “A defender of Monarch”, “advocate of universal monarchy”, at some time he seems to be “Radical Republican”, at some he seems to be “naturalist”, at some point he is advocate of slavery and at others he denounce slavery. Aristotle is not single character , he is like Ravana with many heads.

A man of notorious secrecy and reluctance, he was just referred as “The philosopher” or “The Master of those who know”. He was an unchallenged man of his time; even today he is! After reading his work, i wonder what he would have to say about our world. Would he reject us or give a conning smile of acceptance. He was the first philosopher who said ,“we are the 'zoon politikon': political animal”. For him man alone ,among the animal, had speech or logos(reason). Human was the animal who used logos to distinguish pain and pleasure, who took advantages of harm, who measured just and unjust. It was very particular to humans. It was humans' logos that certain moral categorisation:a sort of moral constitution, to pick things that are harmless, just to him itself, was developed; he called it a family. Family developed into tribe, tribe developed into community, community into village , and then city and then city state. Its natural development .

Polis is for Aristotle a natural entity , which allows humans to achieve their ends and perfect them. Participation in city is necessary for human excellence. A person who is without city is either above humanity(god) or below humanity(beast). However he makes it clear that , naturality is not biological but sociological. He say man(sorry for sexual bias) is political animal not because we have some biological impulse or drive to participate in politics, but , we have power of reasoning. Its reasoning that makes us “political”. We participate because we have reasoning capacity. Connecting logos ie power of speech or reason to politics ,was the greatest outcome of his argument. The power of speech as he calls ,helped us to develop common moral language, a common concept of just and unjust, common shared ideas etc. This is what made the city. Its also brought with it power of love, affection , friendship, sympathy and all the qualities that make us human.

So far he is great , but he starts to narrow down from here. For him this city is a particular city , the polis will be a small city. A polis of closed society. A society that helps us to get our perfection. To achieve these perfection we need to be held together by bonds , bonds of trust, bonds of friendship etc. For him, we cant trust all people, trust can only be extended to small circle of friends or fellow citizens. Only a small city built on trust can be governed justly and in political sense. The empire can only be ruled despotically. Hence imperialism must go in hand with despotism. Think of this statement. These were the first seeds of imperial despotism sown by Aristotle himself.

Man is a political animal and city is by natural but city cant be universal state. It can be something that cant encompass the whole humanity, a world state or world government will be a dream. World state will and can never be as a small , self governing city state. In city, Loyalty is prime virtue , citizen has to be loyal to city. A good citizen of one city cant be good citizen of another. City will exist, and will have enemies and friends; inside city there will test of loyalty and disloyalty, a test of citizen ship and non citizen. Think of this with respect to modern conflict involving nations like India and Pakistan. A City cant be friends with all cities , there will be wars . Wars are unjust but have to be fought.

Inside each city, perhaps during war, citizens have to participate in the offices of city. Freedom will be there but only through political participation, ie only when there is political responsibility(compare this statement with statement related to casting of vote ). Freedom doesn't mean living as you like , but freedom will be in the form of restriction and awareness . Awareness that, not all is permitted(think this wrt PDA, public display of affection ). This society will promote moderation, restraint and self control(think this with respect to dictact on what women should ware in public). In many angle he seems , atleast for me a critique of freedom.

In this city state , according to Aristotle , in equality is basic rule. Its a human rule, hence there exist hierarchy in the citizenship. Those who cant be citizens , they can be owned , because only citizens cant be owned in citizen and all other things can be owned. Hence non citizens can be brought as slaves. As inequality is natural and basic rule ; slavery can be deduced as natural. Distinction between master and slave is natural (think of this argument; think of slavery that exist in world till recently). For me he seems to be the most anti-democrartic philosopher that i have encountered till date. He who is equivalent to Indian Manu. But he also points out that slavery was controversial topic even at that time. Was he speaking in defence of slavery?Perhaps some say yes he was, and some disagree with a note that you better read him once again. He does oppose slavery that is built on unjust wars. He says these type of salvery are not natural , slave-master relationship is relation of power. But it can be argued that when polity is about upbringing and its not biological, which he himself said. How can , hierarchy of intelligence which defines hierarchy of citizenship, be natural and hence how can slavery be called a natural thing?

In all , Aristotle seems to regard , all men are not free. Hence all don't have equal rights to participate in ruling (as citizens) and being ruled as citizens of a state. He seems to advocate that discipline and self restraint is necessary for an educated mind . This education should be for closed society. A group of closely linked citizen , who can govern the city(think of modern politician, bureaucrats, corporates , film industry). To be specific, A well educated and well trained aristocrat. Best regime will be an aristocratic republic or monarchy ,where a group of educated elites governs the city or nation for the good of all. Its seems atleast for me ,a very elitist proposition. But think of this, Is is not easy for cricketer son to be a cricketer; Is it not easy for Bhatts or kapoors to enter film industry; Think of political parties: are all becoming group or family run entities; Think about IPL teams and there owners, running show in the name of all Indians ; Think about how officers in Delhi or Bangalore take decision in the name of “Good for all”. Think how we accept our own social hierarchy. Think how we choose our friends and our life partners. Think of our own leaning towards people. Its not hard to imagine how Aristocratic we are. If Aristotle would visit this planet now , he would say ,“YOU ARE ALL MY CHILDREN”.

Dedicated to those who taught me.
Shivaprakash

Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Sustainable Development

Can any of the sustainable development goals be achieved without a complete change in economic thinking?


Answer depends on ; to whom you ask and conditions of the asked. This might sound vogue. But take Kyoto Protocol itself. US , the richest country and most vibrant country never ratified it, where as EU has done well to implementing protocol. Country like India and china even stumbled from voluntary reduction. Development is dream of every country be its a failed state like Somalia or be a developed states as OECD countries. No one wants "NO DEVELOPMENT". This developmental question has been answered from time to time via industrial revolution, IT revolution, telecom revolution any many more. Countless people vows their developmental stories to this very model which you is in question. A farmer in Nigeria or India can hold on to  mobile phones ; a health worker can access internet in Bangladesh; a developmental worker can download developmental plan on his mobile in Malawi; Ghana cocoa farmer can check international price of cocoa on the internet. These technologies are the product of the very Economics that is being questioned about. Problem is not with Economics but its with implementation and model of implementation.
Its easy to be rhetoric but being solutionist is real challenge. Sustainable development is that challenge and above question is one element in it. What was Economics way back in 19th century ; no one knew "Economics". Model emerged during industrial revolution. But question arises, whether economist deliberately added elements of in-equality , poverty , environment degradation etc. Saying "YES" to this is over stretching of statement. But their is a peculiar behaviour that Humans exhibit; that is to adapt and change as on when required. We have changed earth to an extent never imagined before. Human is prone to make mistake but we correct over-self. We are slow in it, but we have done it; Montreal protocol is example, Hockey stick curve development of green energy is another. Human are not as foolish as economy is!!!!.

Yes Economic model have failed; these were the very same model that made Developed world the "DEVELOPED World". These were the same models that made US a super power. These were the same model that made EU a prosperous region. Back Then , these were expectable for every one. But thing take time , time to show up glitch in the system . One of the first such glitch was ozone hole. The same economics has not include most part of world till 1990s. World realised lately about disparity, destruction and duality of economics. But is it evil then; No , its not. 

SDG has in its plan: ending of poverty, education, inclusion, equity, health, agriculture , urban development, energy , governance .... all these need economics but with the taste of sustaining it for long time. Yes , for this sustaining character of development we need to change economics . Development must have to come under frame work of planetary boundaries. It needs a touch of nature. Its easy to provide Economics to few people. But distributing it among huge number is the greatest challenge. Its classic case of "scarcity" , which in itself is Economics. If we were in a system that provided us unlimited supply of resource than The same old Economics would have been hailed as victor; But world is not plentyful in-front of human desire . Economics was victor for West but not any more. West has realised that its not in hypothetical world of unlimited resource. We in developing economies has seen things changing from : 1 hr daily electricity, with once in 15 days water from municipality, from no phone , no laptop in 1997(as for as i remember at my place)... to 24 hr electricity, once in 4 day s water, 3 smart phone,4 normal mobile, a land line, 2 laptops, a desktop in the same place by 2014. This is gift of the very Economics which is being blamed. My people enjoy this development which world has started to scrutinise, we need it ; but not with same face. We need development that last for longer time, say till 2050 or till my grand or great grand children or score of generation to come . We need Economics that has Sustainability and inclusiveness as its core values .

Regards
Shivaprakash

Saturday, 25 October 2014

Obligation To Protect





March 14 , 1993 Serbrenica, Republic of Bosnia



“I deliberately came here, i have now decided to stay here in Serbrenica. You are now under the protection of the UN forces.” declared General Morillon of UN peace force in his thick French excent to a huge crowd gathered in front of 6  floor building. The Crowd cheered and applauded ; most cried with happiness.



Minutes later ,



Reporter, “Sir, will it work?”

General Morillon replied back, “It will, i will make it work.”



Reporter wrote, “Infront of UN armour vehicle with 6 men; 5 in arms and 1 un armed, General Morillon took salute from his men. One of the soldier hoisted UN flag. Somewhere in these mountains, Serbian commanders might be seeing this through their binocular, reporting back to their infuriated leader Mladic.”



UN , for all these years had played a fairly neutral role and had never took side in the conflict. Before Morillon's announcement it was still doing the same. But unknowingly UN General has taken side, the side to protect the unprotected from the brutality of the invading army. He thought , his action was in response to the humanitarian crisis that was unfolding in front of his eyes. But little did he know that he was establishing a new concept with respect to intervention and national sovereignty.



Its said that the meaning of Intervention and Sovereignty were know to every kind of humans , from Cro-magnon to the modern man, but in different forms. If Aristotle would have taught now, he would have said the same things that modern scholar says. However there was a turn during medieval period , Rules and regulations regarding these 2 were structured and it came to be known as “Treaty of Westphalia”. Nation States have in past fought wars as response to the interpretations of these 2 words ie Intervention and Sovereignty. 

Political legitimacy is one of the supporting concept that is linked with Intervention and sovereignty. Political legitimacy is double edge sword; a sword that cuts both ruling class and the ruled one. How ?...Ask Bush administration!!!! Bush Administration would have said "If its used against ruling, it leads to regime change and If its against ruled ,it leads to state oppression". Problem of legitimacy come into play whenever the state is weak; ie institution strength is low and Rule of law is under question. Effective governance in such a territory is nil. In Hobbesian term its in "state of nature". In this globalised world, there is disincentive, in allowing a state to be in “State of Nature”. Every country acknowledges the fact that intervention is necessary in "State of Nature". Woodrow Wilson was one of the first to advocate internationalism as base of intervention. League of Nation was and UN is the product of this thinking. However when and why to intervene has been the debate which has been going on for a century now.





In post WW2 world, 1 st successful intervention with international base was in Korean war, but this didn't continue due to cold war polarisation. Next success came only during 1st Gulf war ie when USSR was at its death bed. It was during cold war that the question of "why" ? -to expand: why to intervene- was answered; a theory of “Right to Intervene” was discovered. However during the cold war both blocks used “Right to Intervene” to suit their interests. Post cold war(1992) the world has changed; unilateralism under US policemen-ship has been the intervening force. Somalia, Cambodia, Bosnia, Kosovo, East Timor, Afghanistan, Iraq are some of post cold war intervention cases. Right to Intervene or “R2P(Right to protect)” has been used in all cases. However i see a change in the tonality of the “why” question . Some have noticed this but most are ignoring it. My effort here to answer "Whats the changed tone? " and Can intervention be legitimised in other way?



Below argument is for Answer "yes". I would like to call it “Obligation To Protect”, In IR(International Relations) , scholars use “Right to protect” and “Obligation to protect” as one and the same. I would like to make distinction between the 2. Classic case of “Obligation to Protect” is what General Morillon did in 1993 in Serbrenica . 21 st century has seen 2 wars in Asia; Afghan war and Iraq war. I would like to examine tonality of these 2 war. Tonality of “Why” in Afghanistan war was different from that of Iraq war. We need to ask why did the world support the war in Afghanistan but hesitated and even opposed to support the war in Iraq .How 2 wars are different.

Afghan war :  
  • Afghan war was a war for greater stability of the region. 
  • Afghan war emphasized obligation that world has towards the people of the region and the world, and also to protect world against future attacks from the terror state.  
  • Its is also the case of super state having obligation to intervene which i would refer as “Obligation To Protect”.
Iraq war:
  • The War was to change the regime and to prevent WMD(Weapons of Mass Destruction) from falling into hands of terrorist.
  • Case presented was to prevent proliferation of WMD.  
  • Iraq case is classic case of “Right to protect”. Iraq war highlighted the right of a country to intervene.  



There is thin line that differentiates both. This differentiation according to me , is found in the concept “violation of sovereignty”. Lets question our self can a nation's sovereignty be violated?if yes, To what extent?  under what condition? What are grounds for it? Are they legitimate? Who provides that legitimacy?




Sovereignty and Its Violation



Lets have brief answers for these. Internationalism is anti thesis to National Sovereignty. Sovereignty is not absolute. We are part of internationalism, being part is the indication that we are moving towards dismantling concept of absolute National Sovereignty. Historically its know that Nation state which feeds on the definition of territorial boundary is part of imaginative fallacy. Sovereignty related to it, has always been open to interpretation ;most of time interpretation has been partisan based on nationalistic agenda. This Imaginative fallacy of nation state have been violated by other nation or group of nation or international coalitions . This type of interpretation and violation has resulted in WW1 and WW2 . Internationalism was and is the consented answer to the question of extent of violation of Sovereignty of  the Nation state .Should it be unregulated violation or should it be a structured and institutionalised violation . Internationalism can as solution to stop future wars . UN and its organisations, ICC(International Criminal Court), INGOs (International NGOs) etc are instruments of violation. The soft word to this concept is International deliberation. It was solution to bring all Nation States from The "state of Nature"  to contact , but in a slowly and incremental manner by establishing a international social contract(Hobbsian).To which all Nation state will be bound. IMF(International Monetary Fund), WTO(World Trade Organisation), World Bank etc are institution of this International contract. International social contract has deliberators, enforcers, legislators etc. International social contract has given sense of stability in otherwise "state of nature", which persisted before WW2(concept; war with all; peace with non). This sense of stability has been disturbed by various factors; cold war being the main. There were other organisation and grouping that went with Internationalism. NAM(Non-Aligned Movement) being the one.




Institutions that got established to defined the extent of intervention :  WTO in trade, WHO in health crisis, UN peace keeping force in war. Its just like federal structure intervening in the state's matter, when state fails to address the issue. This extent is on rise; states all over the world are sinking , which is good sign for Federalist and internationalist like us. Initially UN interfered in Inter-national matters and not in intra-national matter. However Congo (DRC(Democratic Republic of Congo) UNSC resolution 1279 and 1291) case has changed the meaning. UN started interfering in the civil wars as peace keepers; then it started engaging in battles; this metamorphism is sign of moving from “Right to Protect” to “Obligation To protect”. UN used to maintain territorial integrity of Nation State however post cold war there is metamorphism in that also. Establishment of Kosovo, South Sudan and East Timor are result of this changed policy. Pre Cold-War UN mission were to strengthen the institutions of Nation State but with establishment of UNMIT in East Timor, then UNMIK in Kosovo,UNMIS in South Sudan; Its beyond doubt that UN has found way to create new basic structure of a Nation State and their institutions. Its a revolutionary change in the mandate of UN; ie from its agenda of improvement to agenda of creation. This will no doubt that this revolutionary change is the biggest challenge for those who supports the idea of Absolute sovereign Nation State. However for Internationalist, its 1 step nearer to world stability.



Legitimacy: But is it legitimate and who provides this legitimacy?



Any action whether its taken by group of Nation States or UN, needs to have legitimacy especially when it is related to violation of sovereignty of Nation State. Grounds of legitimacy must be put forward before intervention. This is a highly contested area. Should we interfere in civil war or should we interfere in sub national conflicts like Darfur, Chechanya or Kashmir, or in western sahara. Or should we ask the same question in different way , ie  , why UN doesn’t interfere in Kashmir or Chechanya or Quebeq, but , why did it enter unilaterally in Kosovo, Timor and Darfur area of Sudan.



Each case is complex one, but according to Huntington line of thought when Nation State losses its legitimacy among the people of region than UN can and should intervene;

There are certain cases where there is clear case to intervene . Case of Afghanistan is case of regional security as is Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. These are best case of “Obligation to Intervene or protect(O2P)”. Why ? Because States like Somalia , Afghanistan and ISIS are anti thesis to the established system . These rouge state are threat to regional stability. These create scores of problem both regional and global. Refugee problem, cross border terrorism and organised crime, indiscriminate killing, drugs trade, human right violation,illegal trade, blood minerals, migration stress, etc are some of problems these states produces. 


Let us take recent example :

  • Syrian civil war has displaced 1.5 million refugees in the region; making it hotbed for various criminal activities and internal hub for terrorism. Al Jazeera in 2012-13 did report the growth of these crimes and growth of terrorism under shadow of civil war. Unintended consequence of not intervening earlier gave birth of IS in 2014 ,Now IS is the greatest challenge to the world .
  • Absence of state in Somalia has lead to dangerous growth of Piracy at sea which is a threat to shipping lane of the world. Its also terror exporting base in the region. Kenya, Ethopia are effected by this.
  • Afghanistan's failure is disincentive to the region. Its terror base of the region; exporting terror to India, China and other regional countries.
  • Case can also be made if a rouge state(North Korea) has proven weapons of mass destruction and if there is high probability that it will use it on the neighbouring state unprovoked.

To generalise ; UN can use “Obligation to Intervene or protect” in case where:

  • The Nation becomes state less and plunge into civil war with no effective government creating huge humanitarian crisis.
  • State become a terror hub and active exporter of terrorism.
  • State having WMD and their is high probability that it uses.



Now let us answer the question that has deluded many IR theorist. Ie Can a nation state other than UN, intervene? ... I would answer it as “Yes”. There are lot of instances where concept of intervention is used. Example: India's intervention in Bangladesh independence war. Its one of the first cases of “Obligation To Intervene or protect(O2P)”. There was less incentive for India in Bangladesh's War of Independence but we intervened. Intervention was due to the migration pressure , which civil war has created along India's border. India asked world to intervene but  world failed to intervene and stop humanitarian crisis that was unfolding in Bangladesh. Its know fact that India had been preparing for Intervention in worst case scenario. As worst case approached it intervened, while world called it as adventurism. Question arises, what did we gain? Was it at right time? This debate has always been shadowed by Nationalist literature in IR field. I will not address that, but i believe that Bangladesh saved a lot, it saved itself from becoming another Rawanda. Intervention of US in 1 st Gulf war can alsoo be counted in this. Nation States have previously intervened in other state due to security region ie to bring regional stability, which can be brought under umbrella of "Obligation To Protect". However idea of intervention has lead to arbitrary use. 2003's , US coalition war on Iraq is one of the numerous cases. Reason given by US and Its coalition partners for intervention was WMD and their proliferation ;which were never found and never proved. This falsified intervention is a classic case of “right to intervene” . This case show thin line that exist between “Right to intervene ” and “Obligation to intervene” . Not many nation supported the campaign in Iraq; hence legitimacy was low and WMD were never found. Tonality of intervention was much towards right of some countries led by US to fight against terrorism and fight against state sponsoring terrorism . However if US coalition was able to prove presence of WMD and intention of Iraq State to use it on the neighbouring countries beyond any doubt. And if it had mandate of UNSC or UN general assembly then i could have put this case as metamorphosed case of “right to Intervene” to “Obligation to Intervene”.



Old Intervention: Right to Self Determination



In cases like Darfur, kosovo, East timor etc , UN has in past used “Right to Self Determination” to intervene. According to UN's “Right to Self Determination”  self determination is inalienable right of community and hence UN is bound to help community to achieve it ,when called upon. UN rarely used this during sub-national conflict during cold war period; however post cold war, it has been used in kosovo, East Timor ,South Sudan. Every nation in the world is the entity of self preservation. No nation want it to be divided; however ,very presence in UN is indication that we have agreed on “Right of self determination”. Its other matter that some Nation State gives opportunity for community to exercise this right(England, Canada) and some don’t(Like China, India, Russia, USA). “Right to self determination” can be used only when people of that region loses faith in the Nation State and  states legitimacy in that region is in question. 
 



Problem that exist to date is : how to test this legitimacy? Referendum is the only possible solution so far used. It was used in Timor, Kosova, South Sudan. UN facilitated these referendum. Referendum are used in a sense to represent the "will of the people" on the assumption that it  people of region has right to decide their own faith; a new contract to begin with; It doesn’t give power in the hands of elites of the society who are representative of the society to decide on the behalf of general population. Timor, Kosova, South Sudan ,All  had bloody history of their own and suffered many humanitarian crisis . UN intervened in these humanitarian crisis . Who legitimised it. It came from UNSC resolution. Legitimacy was further strengthened by referendum in which regions opted for independence. Now with UN help, all 3 new nations are coming back to stability;Out of years of underdevelopment and poverty and security nightmares. Usage of “Right to self Determination” by UN in truest sense is another example of metamorphism of “Right to Protect(R2P)” to “Obligation To Protect(O2P)”



“Obligation to Protect” is powerful interventionist concept of internationalism. Legitimacy to this is and has to be provided by UN. There were case in the world such as Rawanda genocide, Serbrenica genocide ; during which world didn’t do any thing resulting in killing of score of people. There are and will be certain cases which requires no legitimacy; only the "will to confront" the terror is required. Presently IS(Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) is one such case where world must not wait to see whether its legitimate to intervene. People of world need security from rouge state and its duty of UN to protect people. Its UN's “Obligation To Protect”.

Dedicated to Francis Fukuyama