Ukraine Crisis: Watershed in International Relation
Back ground theories:
1. Post Westphalia world(for state supremacy)
2. UN's right to self determination(which is a double edged sword )
3. Manner of referendum: is it UN backed, reason for referendum, post referendum scenario. Behaviouralism (leaders,; putin: is a realist, realist believe in concept of power)
4. Nation - state theory
The way world look at nations is through Nation- state theory ie each nation(group of people who have sense of oneness created by forces of unification) must have a state and each state have single nation. this is post 1945 scenario. all around the world leaders have worked towards achieving this goal. hence Italy for italians, england for english, scotland for scotish etc. this concept has brought with it various measures to achieve this ; introduction of national language which is a soft method. eg:Hindi as language as we have many nations(identity both horizontal and vertical eg: kannadigas, yadavas, andras etc). there are hard and corrosive methods like people displace ment(carried pre WW1 and WW2, tartars or crimea are best examples ), ethnic cleansing (sudan's darfur region, kashmir (pandits issue),nazi germany etc). This madness of achieving theoretical assumption has what caused the ethnic wars, secession movements, wars etc. question is that Mr Putin fits to be case of behaviourialism. My view is that he is not but he used this Russian people for russian nation as galvanising force to correct the historic mistake of khrushchev(as said by Gorbachev a week ago). He is realist, former Lt Col of KGB, it was well planned strategy of Intergrationist. There are different views how intergration can be brought. EU ideology and Russian ideology is different in this.
New people in Kiev mainly Yatsenyuk has previously gave various interviews and maidan speeches where he said time and again about Ukraine for Ukranians, banning of russian language(trying to achive nation state monotonic idea), introducing english etc which he now back tracked. When revolutions happen language of revoltionaries must be of integrating however they were divisive. This crack in revolution was well used by Putin for securing Russia ,a secure and strategic black sea port.
from 1945 to till world has balkanised from 51 nations to 193+; all trying to achieve nation state paradigm. however in 2009, 3 philosopher has worked out state nation theory(one being yogendra yadav) to try to stop this madness. But effort of these 3 will in future go in vain. balkanisation will continue but point is where will be next success of nation state theory. i predict it EU itself. scots, catalonia, Venice, quebec in canada, falkland etc. hope indian will listen to Yogendra Yadav.
There is chinese proved "Long united must be divided and long divided must be united" its confusion ethics.
Kosovo case was Pandora box, secession is not followed by integration. real concern with respect to russia is integration. 2008 case of Georgia was clear case of new resurgent russia caving out its area of influence. west especially US is void of policy in unilateral world, it hasn't developed mechanising to contain rising power like china, India, Russia, Brazil etc. Concept of smart power was invention of Obama administration but it went back to hard power of regean era in solving ukraine issue way back in 2012 when it first emerged. Its forward policy that is in action in sphere of Russian influence. shocks therapy techniques are commonly used(crimea). concept of sphere of influence has its tool all round the world. latin america has suffered, south china has suffered, south asia has etc.There is no doubt that ukraine has right to decide as do nepal , bhutan while deciding which way they can go. Russian never followed NAM, however India followed and would follow this for its strategic autonomy in IR. question is can Bhutan or nepal use same NAM towards india.
and about cold war concept; every time there is any thing happening in power block people will come up with this concept ; cold war. they said same thing in 1980s this was new 2nd cold war. will post 2014 be 3 rd one. Cold war as its called is out come of security dilemma(best explained by prisoner dilemma) however in globalised or globalising world there are and will be tools to break this security dilemma. khrushev and kennedy used back channel as tool to break this dilemma. Integrated economy is and has become tool to break this build up to so called cold war. Russia in this direction will take first step ie by not moving towards economic sanction of EU and trade blockade. EU will reciprocate once dust settle down. US knows this will work and will be face savour for it. some day back i even heard of cold war in Asia. Ya people have right to idealise thing however realism has established itself in IR on Nation states.
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